Value a REIT share by discounted cash flow, by net asset value and by relative value using price-to-FFO and price-to-AFFO multiples, and interpret the results
The idea
Three routes lead to a value for a REIT share. The asset route uses net asset value per share, perhaps with a premium or discount for management quality or balance-sheet risk. Relative valuation applies a multiple taken from peers and adjusted for differences in growth, leverage and property quality: value = P/FFO multiple × FFO per share or P/AFFO multiple × AFFO per share. The discounted cash flow route forecasts dividends for a few years, adds a terminal value, often a multiple of the following year's AFFO, and discounts everything at the required return on equity. The traps are mixing measures, such as applying a P/AFFO multiple to FFO, and discounting the terminal value over the wrong number of years.
In the app: 2 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
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- Argue why NAVPS, the net asset value per share, suits the valuation of listed real estate securities, and use forecast cash net operating income to estimate it
- Explain the role of FFO (funds from operations) and AFFO (adjusted FFO) in valuing REITs
- Weigh the pros and cons of holding real estate via listed securities rather than private vehicles