Judge from a DDM value whether the market is pricing a stock too high, too low or fairly
The idea
A dividend discount estimate becomes useful when it is set against the market price. If intrinsic value exceeds price, the share appears undervalued; if value is below price, it appears overvalued; if the two are close, it appears fairly valued. An equivalent test compares the return implied by the price with the required return: an implied return above the required return signals undervaluation, one below it overvaluation. Before acting, the analyst should consider how sensitive the estimate is to the growth rate and the discount rate, since a small change in either can reverse the verdict. The trap is treating a small gap between value and price as a clear signal when it lies well within the model's likely estimation error.
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- Contrast dividends, residual income and free cash flow as DCF inputs and say in which investment settings each one fits
- Work out the value of a common share with the dividend discount model (DDM) over one holding period and over several, and explain the result
- Value a common share with the Gordon growth model, explaining what that model assumes
- Value perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed rate and cannot be called
- Set out what the Gordon growth model does well and badly and argue for using it to value a firm's common shares
- Use the current share price and the Gordon growth model to back out the implied dividend growth rate, and explain it
- Work out PVGO (the present value of what future growth opportunities are worth) and the share of the leading P/E it accounts for, and explain both
- Derive justified leading and trailing P/Es from the Gordon growth model and explain what they mean
- Back out a required return from any DDM, including the H-model and the Gordon growth model
- Explain the growth, transition and maturity phases a business passes through
- Explain what spreadsheet modelling, the H-model, the two-stage DDM and the three-stage DDM assume, and argue for choosing one to value a firm's shares
- Explain terminal value and the different ways of setting it in a DDM
- Value common shares with the H-model, the two-stage DDM and the three-stage DDM, and explain the results
- Explain how spreadsheet models are used to project dividends and value common shares
- Work out a firm's sustainable growth rate and explain it, showing how DuPont analysis can be used to estimate that rate