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Judge the quality of a company's earnings

CFA® Level II · Financial Statement Analysis · Evaluating Quality of Financial Reports · L2.FSA.5.h

The idea

Evaluating earnings quality means testing reported profit against cash and against economics. Compute accrual ratios on the balance sheet and cash flow bases and track them over time; compare revenue growth with growth in receivables and deferred revenue. Check whether gross margin improvements came from lower reserves or capitalised costs, and see how much of profit rests on gains or reserve releases. Look at how earnings compare with consensus: repeatedly beating by a small amount can indicate management of estimates. Tie the findings back to management's incentives. The trap is accepting operating profit as defined by management, since non-GAAP figures that exclude recurring costs overstate core earnings.

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