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Explain valuation by backward induction, and use it to value a fixed-income instrument from its cash flow at every node

CFA® Level II · Fixed Income · The Arbitrage-Free Valuation Framework · L2.FI.2.e

The idea

Backward induction starts at maturity, where the cash flow is known, and works back one date at a time. At each node, the value is V = [½ × (value up + cash flow up) + ½ × (value down + cash flow down)] ÷ (1 + that node's rate). The value found at today's node is the instrument's value. For a coupon bond, add the coupon due at each date to the values of the next nodes before averaging and discounting. For bonds with options, compare the node value with the call or put price at each exercise date before moving back. The two standard mistakes are omitting the coupons at intermediate nodes and forgetting the final discounting step to today.

Formulas

Value at a node of a binomial interest rate tree

V = ½ × [(value up + C) + (value down + C)] ÷ (1 + i)

V
the bond's value at this node
value up
the bond's value at the node above in the next period
value down
its value at the node below
C
the coupon paid at the end of the period
i
the one-period rate at this node

Work backwards from maturity, where the value is par plus the last coupon. Each node discounts at its own rate, and the two branches are equally likely by construction.

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