Explain how yield curve positions are taken across more than one currency
The idea
Yield curves in different countries reflect each economy's monetary policy, inflation and growth, so a manager may overweight the market where yields are expected to fall most or trade relative slope. In base-currency terms, return is roughly the local bond return plus the currency return. If the currency is hedged with forwards, covered interest parity means the hedged return is roughly the local return plus the short-term rate differential (domestic rate − foreign rate), so hedging gives up much of a high-yield market's extra yield. Carry trades that borrow in low-rate currencies and invest unhedged in high-rate ones are a bet that uncovered interest parity fails. The trap is comparing unhedged yields across markets as if currency were irrelevant.
Formulas
Return on a currency-hedged foreign bond
hedged return ≈ local return + (domestic rate − foreign rate)
- hedged return
- the return in the base currency with the currency hedged by forwards
- local return
- the bond's return in its own currency
- domestic rate
- the base currency's short-term rate
- foreign rate
- the bond currency's short-term rate
Covered interest parity makes hedging a high-yielding market give up much of its extra yield, so compare hedged returns, not raw yields, across markets. Unhedged, the return is roughly the local return plus the currency's move.
In the app: 2 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in Yield Curve Strategies
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- Build a positioning strategy around an expected rise or fall in interest rate volatility
- Assess how a portfolio's rate sensitivity compares with its benchmark's using key rate durations
- Assess the likely return from a yield curve strategy and the risks it carries