Explain expected exposure, probability of default, loss given default and the adjustment to value for credit (CVA)
The idea
Credit risk splits into four pieces. Expected exposure is the amount at stake if default occurred at a given date, before any recovery, usually the value of the remaining payments at that date. Loss given default is exposure × (1 − recovery rate). The probability of default for a period is the hazard rate multiplied by the probability of surviving to the start of that period, so it falls over time even with a constant hazard. Expected loss for a date is loss given default × probability of default. The credit valuation adjustment is the sum of each expected loss discounted at the risk-free rate, and a bond's fair value is its default-free value minus the CVA.
In the app: 3 practice questions on this outcome, a narrated walkthrough with diagrams, spaced review that brings it back before you forget it.
Take the free diagnostic →More in Credit Analysis Models
- Explain credit ratings and credit scores
- Work out a bond's expected return when its credit rating may migrate
- Explain the structural and the reduced-form approaches to modelling corporate credit risk, covering what each assumes and its strong and weak points
- Work out a bond's value and credit spread from assumed credit risk parameters
- Explain what a change in a credit spread indicates
- Explain what drives the credit spread term structure, and read what a given credit spread curve across maturities shows
- Contrast analysing corporate debt for credit risk with the analysis that securitized debt requires