Assess using EBITDA and net income as stand-ins for cash flow when valuing a firm
The idea
Net income is a poor stand-in for free cash flow to equity because it includes non-cash charges and gains, excludes investment in fixed and working capital, and ignores net borrowing. A company can report rising profits while consuming cash to fund expansion. EBITDA is a poor stand-in for free cash flow to the firm because it ignores taxes, which are a real cash cost, and ignores the capital spending and working capital needed to sustain the business. Capital-intensive companies look far healthier on EBITDA than on free cash flow. Net income approximates FCFE only when fixed-capital investment roughly equals depreciation, working capital is stable, there is no net borrowing and there are no other large non-cash items. EBITDA overstates FCFF even then, because taxes are a cash cost. The trap is valuing a growing, capital-hungry business on a multiple of EBITDA as if EBITDA were cash.
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- Contrast valuing a business by the free cash flow available to equity (FCFE) with valuing it by its free cash flow to the whole firm (FCFF)
- Explain whose point of view as owner the FCFE approach takes
- Explain which adjustments turn EBIT (pre-interest, pre-tax earnings), EBITDA, net income and operating cash flow (CFO) into FCFF and FCFE
- Work out FCFF and FCFE
- Set out ways of projecting FCFF and FCFE
- Explain how dividends, buybacks, new share issues and shifts in leverage can change future FCFF and FCFE
- Contrast the FCFE model with dividend discount models
- Explain how sensitivity analysis is used in FCFF and FCFE valuation
- Explain FCFF and FCFE models with one stable-growth stage, two stages and three stages, and argue which suits a given firm's characteristics
- Estimate what a firm is worth with the free cash flow model or models that fit it
- Set out ways of working out terminal value in a valuation model with several stages
- Judge from a free cash flow valuation whether a stock is priced too high, too low or fairly