Explain continuing residual income and defend an estimate of it at the forecast horizon in light of the firm's and industry's outlook
The idea
Continuing residual income is the residual income expected after the explicit forecast horizon, and the assumption made about it often drives the valuation. Common cases are that it continues at the final level for ever, that it drops to zero at once, that it declines gradually to zero as ROE fades towards r, or that it settles where ROE reaches a long-run industry level. The persistence factor ω captures fading. A low ω suits companies with weak competitive advantages, high payout, extreme accruals or large special items. A high ω suits durable advantages, low payout and modest accruals. The trap is assuming excess returns persist indefinitely for a company in a competitive industry with low barriers to entry.
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- Work out economic value added, market value added and residual income and explain what they mean
- Explain what residual income models are used for
- Value a common share with the residual income model and contrast when value is recognised under it and under other present value models
- Explain the fundamentals that determine residual income
- Explain how residual income valuation links to the justified P/B ratio derived from forecasted fundamentals
- Work out a common share's intrinsic value with residual income models that have one constant-growth stage or several stages, and explain the result
- Back out the growth rate implied in residual income from the market P/B ratio and an estimated required return on equity
- Contrast residual income models with free cash flow and dividend discount models
- Explain where residual income models are strong and weak and argue for using one to value a firm's common stock
- Set out the accounting problems that arise when residual income models are applied